What are US equities discounting these days? On Wednesday, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development released some welcome upgrades to global growth. But many bourses closed flat to down, suggesting markets had already priced in better times ahead. On Thursday, on the other hand, US stocks moved higher in spite of a weaker jobs report than expected. Does that mean the possibility that things could get worse again has also been discounted?

Markets cannot have it both ways. More likely, investors are confused. Employment data are a case in point. Weekly initial claims numbers are volatile but the surprise jump of 15,000 claims was materially above the 3,000 fall economists were expecting. But a disconnection can exist for some time between claims and overall payrolls data, which have buoyed investors of late by falling less quickly.