LEX 
Warning: paper jam! The Bank of England will inject a further £25bn into the economy, mainly through purchases of gilts. The quantitative easing programme is soon to hit the £200bn mark, more than 13 per cent of gross domestic product. The bank’s hyperactivity reflects the fact that it controls the only lever left to policymakers; the bleak state of the public finances gives zero scope for fresh fiscal stimulus. While it sees signs the economy may soon recover, it expects any revival to be slow; credit is tight as banks rebuild balance sheets, and there remains a substantial margin of under-utilised capacity resulting from the 6 per cent fall in output experienced over the past six quarters.
Other central banks are either devising their exit strategies or raising interest rates – the Federal Reserve on Wednesday implicitly set out the factors that would lead to a rate rise, while the European Central Bank is expected to begin discussions on a gradual dismantling of emergency measures. But the UK is still flat on its back. That at least was the evidence from the 0.4 per cent fall in third-quarter GDP. Other indicators have been more encouraging. October’s UK CIPS/Markit report on services echoed the upbeat tone of Monday’s manufacturing survey. The rise in unemployment seems to be topping out. The property bubble is re-inflating. Equity markets have held on to strong gains.
Investors are right to take no chances, protecting themselves against a more rapid resurgence of inflation. Impatience for tangible signs of commitment to a timely reduction in the fiscal deficit and public debt mountain is growing. Look at the yield on the 10-year gilt, for example. This has risen by about half a percentage point in the past month alone, hitting 3.84 per cent on Thursday. Every percentage point increase in the government’s borrowing costs adds about £15bn to the chancellor’s interest bill. If long-term rates continue to rise at this pace until the election, shadow chancellor George Osborne will drown in debt service payments.
